Wednesday, April 06, 2016

Onymous Guy looks into his crystal ball and is starting to get worried

Source: CAP
I have found it difficult to convince people who should know better that we are going to hit the carbon ceiling much sooner than most people think. [Don't take my word for it, see for example A lower limit for future climate emissions or Electricity emissions surge by 5.5% since removal of carbon price, if you are looking for evidence of a more immediate nature.

Here in Oregon, we pride ourselves on being ahead of the curve, using a lot of green energy (mostly salmon-killing hydro), and legislating moving away from coal (our per capita carbon footprint is still 15.1 Mg CO2e per capita, still much higher than the world average).

I spent the day yesterday in Salem at Willamette University's Clean Power Forum, where the head of the state Global Warming Commission and others spoke to mostly students and a few faculty like me. I was whelmed and underwhelmed, not overwhelmed.

Near the end, I said that I didn't think much of Oregon's climate targets, because they were so unambitious, that Secretary of State Kerry had said over a year ago that we needed to de-carbonize the economy by 2030, and what was being discussed (50% reduction by 2040) didn't look anything like that.

Source: The Guardian
There is an inadequate sense of urgency in these people - and these are activists and supporters!

A look into my crystal ball predicts that we have until 2031, perhaps 2035 before we hit the world-wide carbon ceiling, that warming in the El Nino cycles of the '30s will be so devastating that some rogue nation will start pumping SO2 into the atmosphere, and we will see the Paris accords start to unravel.

 I am not in a state of panic, nor despair, but...

[By an odd twist of fate, Salem was filled with smoke from nearby field burning - I am guessing that the Air Quality Index was in the upper 200s].

UPDATE: Maybe the geo-engineers will strike sooner, rather than later.

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