Our new Caligula and his admirers

 I have seen links on the Zuckerberg entity to posts by our new Caligula.

Caligula II
source: That’s Another Fine Mess

It astonishes me that anyone of even average intelligence is persuaded by the bile created by His Majesty. 

This is typical shyte from a Trumper:

America is going to be digging out of this disaster for YEARS…

Joe Biden and the Democrats didn’t just fail — they INTENTIONALLY flooded our country with 20 MILLION unvetted illegals from all over the world.

Not by accident. Not by mistake. On purpose.

And every community in America is paying the price for THEIR chaos.

Crime exploding. Cities overwhelmed. Families put in danger.

Meanwhile Democrats sit back, smile, and tell you everything is “just fine.”

Let me say what everyone is thinking but is too afraid to post:

The Democrat Party has become the ENEMY of the American people.

Period.

And this...

Imagine being 79 years old and worth billions.

You could do anything.

But instead you decide to work 24/7 for the American people for FREE.

That's my president.

These people and their ilk are completely unaware of the numerous ways in which our new Caligula and his family have enriched themselves. Their crytpo assets are skyrocketing, all without regulation: 

Trump's crypto fortune

More than four months after he took back the Oval Office, President Donald Trump’s business empire is quickly establishing itself as a new crypto empire.

And the utter corruption in his pardons, especially the January 6 traitors.

Trump's pardons

The Brennan Center has investigated and reported on graft with our Caligula's administration.

Trump's crony capitalism

Trump’s net worth has grown by $3 billion since he took office. His family businesses are raking in millions in the crypto industry, luxury real estate, and investment deals in the Middle East. The Trump Organization is reported to be in talks with Saudi Arabia on a deal that could bring the Trump brand to a government-owned luxury real estate development, flying in the face of the Constitution’s Foreign Emoluments Clause. Meanwhile, Trump hosted Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman at the White House today.

Brazen grifting now pervades the entire federal government.

So much for deciding 'to work 24/7 for the American people for FREE.'

But this pales compared to the shyte about ICE violence and mayhem peddled by the Trumpers. One recent post on the Zuckerberg entity by our new Caligula quoted at length one of his blonde female followers, Isabella Maria DeLuca, a poli sci alum of Stony Brook who was a campus rep for Turning Point. She was a 6 Jan traitor who was pardoned by Caligula II. I won't link to her nonsense - you can find it easily enough if you wish - but I will summarize it as this steaming turd:

Isabella: "Renee Good is the perfect case study in understanding how far left-wing ideological extremism has gone. She knowingly inserted herself into an active ICE operation, she physically obstructed federal ICE agents, and then she used her vehicle as a weapon, all in defense of Somali nationals.

She had three children-three children who expected their mother to come home alive-and yet Renee drove down there anyways to interfere with ICE operations. She put herself directly in the line of fire and then made a decision that was going to end up in one of two ways, and that was getting arrested or getting killed. And she wound up getting killed. Now three children are going to grow up without their mom, and not because of illness, not because of an accident, but because a dangerous ideology convinced this woman that the fight for Somali nationals and illegal immigrants was more important than coming home to her children.

When you take away all the virtue signaling, and the slogans, and the protest, what's left is something that is so profoundly sad, but also disturbing, deeply irresponsible, and just morally grotesque. The movement that radicalized this woman will not raise her children and neither will the people that she died for."

These are lies -- She knowingly inserted herself into an active ICE operation, she physically obstructed federal ICE agents, and then she used her vehicle as a weapon, all in defense of Somali nationals. -- and complete misrepresentations of her and of what actually transpired.

Michael D. Sellars, retired CIA analyst, has used his forensic video skills to examine the video from the shooter's own smart phone (which he never dropped)

Here's a bio of the author:

https://michaeldsellers.substack.com/about

I’m a former CIA officer currently working as a criminal defense and civil rights investigator. I’m also an author, film-maker, fact-enthusiast, husband of an amazing wife from Kenya, and father of five. On my Substack, my goal is to bring an intelligence officer and investigator’s evidence-based mentality to the issues that are in front of us.

He made several substack posts:

1. Renee Good Shooting: Three Shots, One Timeline: A Preliminary Forensic Video Breakdown

America is on fire today after a stunning and tragic act of violence occurred. In the immediate aftermath, two alternate “realities” emerged — both of which cannot be true. According to the US Government, what happened was a weaponized car attempting to ram an ICE officer who fired defensively with justification. According to state officials, witnesses, and others — that’s not what happened at all—it was an unjustifed shooting of an American citizen who was not a valid target for lethal force.

I do video forensic analysis as part of my official work as an investigator. Tonight I have done a preliminary breakdown of the bystander video, much as I would do in the normal course of my work. This is preliminary — more time is needed to do a proper video forensic analysis of all the videos and what they may yield. But for this preliminary version, I have zoomed in, applied a timecode counter so we can precisely measure frames and seconds, provided various slow motion versions and have identified key frames and have frozen them.

2. Renee Good Shooting: Forensic Video Analysis of ICE Agent Ross's Vi

There is no doubt that this is very bad law enforcement work. Ross was foolish to place himself in front of the car like he did. There were many signals that Good was not hostile, erratic, volatile, and thus likely did not pose a threat of an intentional hostile action. She absolutely did not target him; it is 100% clear she was simply trying to turn right and drive away down the road and this was absolutely clear to Ross—something we can say with some certainty since this camera is his POV.

3. Renee Good Shooting: Can The Trump Administration Shield Jonathan Ross, the Shooter, From Accountability?

https://michaeldsellers.substack.com/p/renee-good-shooting-can-the-trump

What “shielding” looks like in the real world

It looks like this:

• Federal authorities retain custody of the vehicle, original digital files, and internal policy materials.
• State investigators work from public clips and partial disclosures.
• DOJ cites an “ongoing investigation,” then quietly declines charges weeks later.
• State prosecutors face an uphill removal and immunity fight with an incomplete record.
• Civil claims are narrowed by modern Supreme Court doctrine.

That is how someone is shielded—without anyone ever saying the word.

Ross will get off, as did all of the 6 January traitors, as did Clive Bundy, as did his spawn Ammon Bundy. As did a host of Trumpers. The 5 men and one woman in black will see to it, if it gets that far. 

After all, they work for Caligula II.

Current Composition of the Atmosphere, July 2025

 Guest post by Jim

Abstract

Total forcings are total 535 ppm CO2 eq, less than 20 ppm CO2 eq from twice the pre-industrial amount. The 2x crossing is now estimated to occur 28 February, 2030. The leading greenhouse gases, in terms of radiative forcings, are carbon dioxide (426 ppm CO2 eq, 79.7%), methane (54.5  ppm CO2 eq, 10.2%), and nitrous oxide (17.8 ppm CO2 eq, 3.32%); 

Results

I am a bit uneasy everytime that I check out NOAA's Global Monitoring Laboratory's data, Trends in CO2, CH4, N2O, SF6. Will the data be there? Will the updates appear in a timely manner? They used to be posted 5th of each month or the next business day, regular as clockwork. Not so much, these days.

Here are the updated results. Little has changed. By 2030 the atmosphere will have such a high concentration of greenhouse gases that the effective radiative forcing will be  twice that of the pre-industrial era. 

The 2x crossing is now estimated to occur 28 February, 2030 give or take a month; just as in previous months, changes in this estimate over the last year are more likely due to month-to-month fluctuations, not long term changes in trends. 

Total forcings are total 535 ppm CO2 eq, less than 20 ppm CO2 eq from twice the pre-industrial amount. It is clear that, within a handful of years the 2x pre-industrial level will be crossed.

The leading greenhouse gases, in terms of radiative forcings, are carbon dioxide (426 ppm CO2 eq, 79.7%), methane (54.5  ppm CO2 eq, 10.2%), and nitrous oxide (17.8 ppm CO2 eq, 3.32%); all others contribute the rest (35.9  ppm CO2 eq (6.7%). 

Here is a pie chart showing these relative forcings. Carbon dioxide, of course, is the largest contributor but methane is not insignificant and has been relatively increasing.

Here is a plot showing the combination of historic data, satellite era data, and the most recent updates from NOAA:

OG: Thanks, as usual, Jim! Wish it were better news.

Analysis of the 2024 Southern Hemisphere Ozone Hole

Abstract

The 2024 Southern Hemisphere ozone hole lasted about five months, reached  a minimum temperature of 180 K on 8 August, with an area of 22 x 10⁶ km² on 28 September, with a minimum O₃ concentration of 107 Dobson units on 7 October.

The season's ozone hole, on the average, was 26^th out of 45 ranked by area, 24^th out of 45 ranked by depth, 24^th out of 45 ranked by mass deficit, 27^th out of 45 ranked by mean ozone concentration, and 24^th out of 45 ranked by mean temperature.

By these measures, the past year was an average one over the satellite era.

The world is on track to return the Antarctic stratosphere to pre-1980 levels by approximately 2076, were the general trend of decline to continue.

Data Sources

Normally, I would not start out with this section, but NOAA and NASA are both under attack by the right wing in the current [mis]administration.   NOAA monitors ozone-depleting substances worldwide. And NASA satellites monitor ozone. The future existence of the repositories of these data is in doubt. Thus is is not unlikely that, at some point in the not-too-distant future, a click here or there will result in a "404 error".

Introduction

This is a re-analysis of NASA Ozone Watch data for the Southern Hemisphere Ozone Hole. The 2024 antarctic ozone hole closed at the end of December, as is usual. The area (in 10⁶ km²)  of the ozone hole is shown in figure 1. As is readily observed, the hole emerged in the late Antarctic winter, mid-July and closed five months later by mid-December. The basic science of stratospheric ozone depletion is well understood. 

...the primary cause of ozone depletion is the presence of chlorine-containing source gases (primarily CFCs and related halocarbons). In the presence of UV light, these gases dissociate, releasing chlorine atoms, which then go on to catalyze ozone destruction.

Figure 1. SH Ozone hole area

 

The ozone hole is usually characterized by its area, depth, and temperature. These properties are illustrated in the following set of figures.

Figure 2 shows the evolution of the ozone hole area over the years of the satellite era. NASA states "The minimum ozone is found from total ozone satellite measurements south of 40°S. No interpolation of missing values is performed. This means that the actual minimum value on a day may be estimated too high, especially in the polar night region."

Figure 2. Ozone hole area near September maximum

 

Figure three shows the mean amount of Antarctic stratospheric ozone in Dobson Units (DU). 

The Dobson unit is defined as the thickness (in units of 10 μm) of that layer of pure gas which would be formed by the total column amount at standard conditions for temperature and pressure (STP). This is sometimes referred to as a 'milli-atmo-centimeter'. A typical column amount of 300 DU of atmospheric ozone therefore would form a 3 mm layer of pure gas at the surface of the Earth if its temperature and pressure conformed to STP.  

The annual record is shown and compared with that over the satellite era. Note that the 2024 ozone hole was quite close to the satellite era mean, aside from a short-lived decrease in November 2024.

Figure 3. The mean ozone, found from
total ozone satellite measurements south of 40°S. 

Figure three shows the mean amount of Antarctic stratospheric ozone in DU. Note the pronounced minimum at the Antarctic spring remains quite pronounced,  reaching a low of 109 DU.  In this author's opinion, this behavior is not that of an atmosphere healed from the damage of ozone depleting substances.

Figure 4. The minimum ozone
 

Figure 5 shows the temperature of the stratosphere at a pressure of 10 hPa, an altitude of approximately 30 kilometers,  averaged around the polar cap for latitudes south of 60°S. NOAA states "This is a good measure of the overall temperature in the polar vortex." Note the temperatures for the formation of type I and type IIU polar stratospheric clouds (PSC), "composed of mostly supercooled droplets of water and nitric acid and is implicated in the formation of ozone holes." Once again, these data are quite close to the mean over the satellite era.

Figure 5. The 10 mPa temperature in Kelvin (K)
averaged for 55°S to 75°S.

Figure 6 shows the mass deficit of antarctic stratospheric ozone. From NASA's ozone watch site: 

The ozone mass deficit is determined from total ozone satellite measurements. It combines the effects of changes in area and depth. It is the total amount of mass that is deficit relative to the amount of mass present for a value of 220 Dobson Units (DU). 

This mass deficit reached a peak of 28.20 Megaton ozone in mid-September, slightly higher than the mean over the satellite era.  

Figure 6. Mass deficit of antarctic stratospheric ozone (Megatons) 

 

The causes of stratospheric ozone depletion were deduced by Paul J. Crutzen, Mario J. Molina and F. Sherwood Rowland, who were jointly awarded The Nobel Prize in Chemistry in 1995 "for their work in atmospheric chemistry, particularly concerning the formation and decomposition of ozone."

From the EPA:

When chlorine and bromine atoms come into contact with ozone in the stratosphere, they destroy ozone molecules. One chlorine atom can destroy over 100,000 ozone molecules before it is removed from the stratosphere. Ozone can be destroyed more quickly than it is naturally created.

Some compounds release chlorine or bromine when they are exposed to intense UV light in the stratosphere. These compounds contribute to ozone depletion, and are called ozone-depleting substances (ODS). ODS that release chlorine include chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs), hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs), carbon tetrachloride, and methyl chloroform. ODS that release bromine include halons and methyl bromide. Although ODS are emitted at the Earth’s surface, they are eventually carried into the stratosphere in a process that can take as long as two to five years.

These and similar substances are tracked by NOAA, which has developed and maintained an annual "Ozone Depleting Substance Index":

The ODGI is estimated directly from observations at Earth’s surface of the most abundant long-lived, chlorine and bromine containing chemicals whose production and consumption is controlled by the Montreal Protocol (15 individual chemicals). These ongoing, surface-based observations provide a direct measure of nearly all of the chlorine and bromine atoms in the lower atmosphere, or troposphere, contained in chemicals with lifetimes longer than approximately 0.5 yr. Because the lower atmosphere is quite well-mixed, these observations also provide an accurate estimate of the amount of chlorine and bromine entering the stratosphere from these chemicals.

The ODGI is shown in figure eight, "calculated for the Antarctic and mid-latitude stratosphere. As before, the ODGI derived directly from the Equivalent Effective Stratospheric Chlorine (EESC) determined from our atmospheric observations at remote surface sites". The mid-latitude index is seen to have peaked in 1997 and decreased to half its maximum in 2021, clear evidence of the success of the Montreal Protocols.

Figure 8. The Ozone Depleting Gas Index (ODGI) vs. time 

 

Figure nine, also from NOAA, shows past and projected future changes in reactive halogen concentrations in the atmosphere.  

Past concentrations are derived from NOAA measurements of both chlorine- and bromine-containing chemicals; “WMO scenarios” are from the WMO/UNEP 2018 Ozone Assessment, which are tied to NOAA observations in the past and, for the future, assume full adherence to controls on production and consumption of ODSs in the fully revised and amended Montreal Protocol (Carpenter and Daniel et al., 2022). Measured tropospheric changes are indicated with dashed curves and points, while inferred stratospheric changes are indicated as solid curves. Estimates are provided for different regions: the mid-latitude stratosphere and the Antarctic stratosphere. The down-pointing arrows represent the estimated dates that concentrations of stratospheric halogen will return to the benchmark levels present in 1980.

Figure 9. Past and projected future changes in reactive
halogen concentrations in the atmosphere.

Of course, the ultimate measure of the success of these policies and treaties is the improvement in human health. Here are some data from the Ozone Secretariat of the United Nations Environment Programme:

The Montreal Protocol has prevented large increases in surface UV-B radiation, with greatest benefits at high latitudes. Modelling studies indicate that without the Montreal Protocol, at northern and southern latitudes of less than 50° the ultraviolet index (UVI), which indicates the intensity of UV radiation with respect to sunburn, would have increased by 10-20% between 1996 and 2020. This would have increased by 25% at the southern tip of South America and by more than 100% at the South Pole in springtime.

In the United States, full implementation of the Montreal Protocol is expected to prevent approximately 443 million cases of skin cancer, 2.3 million skin cancer deaths, and 63 million cases of cataracts for people born in the years 1890–2100, according to the US Environmental Protection Agency.

Would-be dictator names three climate deniers to Energy Department

 I will not link to the news sources for this story, but I do have an image of the three new hires, who do seem to have a reputation for snake oil peddling.

The Antarctic stratospheric ozone hole in 2024

by OnymousGuy

Abstract

The data says 2024 was pretty average, and "far from being fully healed", but NASA's press office says "relatively small". So which is it? "Relatively small", or "far from being fully healed"?

Background

We are approaching the end of season for this year's Antarctic stratospheric ozone hole, as the increasing springtime sunlight stimulates the Chapman cycle to produce more ozone. 

NASA's ozone watch documents the status of the Antarctic stratospheric ozone hole, with updates about every week or so, but less frequently at the end of the season. Certain parameters are tracked:

The data for the ozone hole area, the minimum ozone, and the minimum stratospheric temperature are available. Also available is a table of values showing the maximum ozone hole area and the minimum ozone values for each year...

The graphs ... show the progress of the ozone hole for 2024. The gray shading indicates the highest and lowest values measured since 1979. The red numbers are the maximum or minimum values. The stratospheric temperature and the amount of sunlight reaching the south polar region control the depth and size of the Antarctic ozone hole. The dashed line in the minimum temperature plot indicates the temperature below which Type I (NAT) PSCs can form. 

Ozone concentrations are reported in Dobson units.

The Dobson Unit (DU) is the unit of measure for total ozone. If you were to take all the ozone in a column of air stretching from the surface of the earth to space, and bring all that ozone to standard temperature (0 °Celsius) and pressure (1013.25 millibars, or one atmosphere, or “atm”), the column would be about 0.3 centimeters thick. Thus, the total ozone would be 0.3 atm-cm. To make the units easier to work with, the “Dobson Unit” is defined to be 0.001 atm-cm. Our 0.3 atm-cm would be 300 DU. 

Here are some recent images.

• ozone hole area, minimum ozone, minimum stratospheric temperature,

• annual maximum ozone hole area, annual minimum ozone.

Here is a recent false color image of the ozone hole. 

Discussion

From these figures, I would say that the 2024 ozone hole has been pretty close to its average over the satellite era. So I was a bit surprised to read this puffery from NASA:

Healing continues in the atmosphere over the Antarctic: a hole that opens annually in the ozone layer over Earth's southern pole was relatively small in 2024 compared to other years. 

During the peak of the ozone depletion season from Sept. 7 through Oct. 13, the 2024 area of the ozone hole ranked the seventh smallest since recovery began in 1992, when the Montreal Protocol, a landmark international agreement to phase out ozone-depleting chemicals, began to take effect...

The improvement is due to a combination of continuing declines in harmful chlorofluorocarbon (CFC) chemicals, along with an unexpected infusion of ozone carried by air currents from north of the Antarctic, scientists said. 

A little bit of realism creeps into the blurb from NASA, lower down in the press release.

In previous years, NASA and NOAA have reported the ozone hole ranking using a time frame dating back to 1979, when scientists began tracking Antarctic ozone levels with satellite data. Using that longer record, this year's hole ranked 20th smallest in area across the 45 years of observations.

IMO, 20th out of 45 sounds pretty average. One of the GML scientists spills the beans:

"For 2024, we can see that the ozone hole's severity is below average compared to other years in the past three decades, but the ozone layer is still far from being fully healed," said Stephen Montzka, senior scientist of the NOAA Global Monitoring Laboratory.

So which is it? "Relatively small", or "far from being fully healed"?

Ozone Depleting Substances

The ozone hole, of course, depends on the concentration of stratospheric chlorine and bromine; sources of atomic Cl and Br in the stratosphere are called ozone depleting substances. The Trump administration excised EPA information about ozone depletion and the like, so one must look to the European Union for such things.

A compound that contributes to stratospheric ozone depletion. Ozone-depleting substances (ODS) include CFCs, HCFCs, halons, methyl bromide, carbon tetrachloride, and methyl chloroform. ODS are generally very stable in the troposphere and only degrade under intense ultraviolet light in the stratosphere. When they break down, they release chlorine or bromine atoms, which then deplete ozone.

These species have one thing in common: they contain halogens, specifically chlorine or bromine. Each halogenated compound is associated with an ozone-depleting potential (ODP), a direct measure of its ability to destroy ozone. More from the EU:

The ozone-depleting potential (ODP) of a substance refers to the relative amount of ozone depletion caused by it. It is the ratio of the impact on ozone of the emission of a chemical substance to the impact of a similar emission by mass of CFC-11. The quantity in metric tonnes of a particular controlled substance is multiplied by its ODP to give its overall potential to deplete the ozone layer. For instance, 1 metric tonne of CFC-11 corresponds to 1 ODP tonnes (as its ODP is equal to 1), whilst for bromotrifluoromethane or halon 1301 (with an ODP = 10), 1 metric tonne corresponds to 10 ODP tonnes. The ODPs of controlled and new substances are listed in Annexes I and II of the Ozone Regulation (Regulation (EC) No 1005/2009). Some new substances have a range, rather than a single ODP value. In this online data viewer, the highest value of the ODP value range is used.

What are the current levels of atmospheric chlorine? NOAA's Global Monitoring Laboratory reports this trend.

It seems that the most that one could say, based on the data, is that mid-latitude amounts of ozone-depleting substances have dropped below half of their pre-Montreal Protocol maximum. Yes, the world is still on track to see Antarctic  mounts of ozone-depleting substances have dropped below half of their pre-protocol maxima by 2076 or so, provided that we remain vigilant in observing the protocols and their amendments. HCFCs are the issue.

And then NOAA scientists weigh in on the minimum.

NOAA scientists also release instrumented weather balloons from the South Pole Baseline Atmospheric Observatory to observe ozone concentrations directly overhead in a measurement called Dobson Units. The 2024 concentration reached its lowest value of 109 Dobson Units on October 5. The lowest value ever recorded over the South Pole was 92 Dobson Units in October 2006.

NASA and NOAA satellite observations of ozone concentrations cover the entire ozone hole, which can produce a slightly smaller value for the lowest Dobson Unit measurement.

"That is well below the 225 Dobson Units that was typical of the ozone cover above the Antarctic in 1979," said NOAA research chemist Bryan Johnson. "So, there's still a long way to go before atmospheric ozone is back to the levels before the advent of widespread CFC pollution." 

There you have, at the very end of the puff piece: "There's still a long way to go before atmospheric ozone is back to the levels before the advent of widespread CFC pollution."

Putting current radiative forcing in context

Guest post by Jim

Abstract

Current radiative forcing from all greenhouse gases, omitting aerosols from nonmetal oxides and the like, is now just under 3.5 W/m², with an Annual Greenhouse Gas Index of about 1.52. This represents approximately 1.5% of average surface insolation.  Unlike solar energy, which rises and falls with the sun, this infrared energy captured from the earth itself accumulates second by second, day and night.

How significant is this? Consider this analogy. A typical adult on a 2000 kcal/day diet ingesting daily 1.5% calories in excess will gain 31 pounds per decade, with profound consequences. Now we have been burning fossil fuels at the same high rate as our over-eater for more than two decades. How can we possibly imagine that the consequences for the planet will be less severe?

Background

My most recent re-analysis of NOAA's greenhouse gas data stated that the current Annual Greenhouse Gas Index (AGGI) stood at 1.5177, on the scale where the 1990 AGGI is set to one.

NOAA's data from 1990 reported that total forcing was 2.301 W/m², so an AGGI of 1.5177 corresponds to radiative forcing of 3.492 W/m². This is the amount of energy emitted by the earth (which glows in the infrared) and captured by greenhouse gases in the atmosphere over each square meter of the earth's surface, each second. How does this compare to the energy from the sun?

The accompanying figure is from Total Solar Irradiance CDR, at the National Centers for Environmental Information, part of NOAA. It shows Total Solar Irradiance (TSI) at the top of the atmosphere, scaled to a uniform distance from the sun.

"The Total Solar Irradiance (TSI) Climate Data Record (CDR) measures the spectrally integrated energy input to the top of the Earth's atmosphere at a base mean distance from the Sun (i.e., one Astronomical Unit)."

There are a couple of things worth noting. First, TSI over the satellite era (1979-present) is almost constant, roughly 1362 W/m², clearly negating the denialisti claims that "It's the sun!". Second, historic reconstructions of TSI over the last four centuries show that variations in TSI average about 0.5 W/m², so an increase in radiative forcing of just 1W/m² is larger than most variations in the TSI signal. An increase of 3.5 W/m² is far larger than the usual variation.

Since the earth is nearly a sphere of radius R, its surface area, approximately 4πR² , is about four times its circular cross-section, about πR². So insolation - sunlight energy falling on each unit of area - over the entire globe is about one fourth that directly under the sun, (1362/4) W/m² . This implies that the average global insolation at the top of the atmosphere is about 340.5 W/m². At the surface, this is further reduced by the albedo (reflectivity) of the earth.

The American Meteorological Society sums up the current estimates of planetary albedo:

On the average, the earth reflects 31 units of solar radiation back to the space for every 100 units received (thus, the total earth albedo is 0.31). The cloud albedo accounts for 23 units of the 31. For individual clouds, local albedo may be in excess of 0.7.

So only 69% of that 340.5 W/m², about 235 W/m², hits the earth's surface. The radiative forcing from all greenhouse gases, except the short-lived species such as ozone, SOx, or NOx, is 3.492 W/m², about 1.486% of average surface insolation. Unlike solar energy, this  infrared energy captured from the earth itself accumulates second by second, day and night.

Comparison with diet

To see what impacts this energy has on the planet, let's look at the effects of over-eating on a typical adult who maintains a healthy weight with a 2000 kcal/day diet. That same percent, 1.486%, of their daily calorie intake is 29.7 kcal/day, almost the same as the energy content of 4 g of butter, a scant teaspoon. As we all come to know sooner or later, excess calories are stored in the body as fat, roughly 3500 kcal per pound of fat. This overeating will lead to weight gain, roughly one pound every 118 days, about 3.1 pounds each year, year after year. 

A decade of this overeating leads to a gain in weight of about 31 pounds. This will make that adult at least overweight, if not obese.  The CDC states

Obesity in children and adults increases the risk for the following health conditions:

• High blood pressure and high cholesterol which are risk factors for heart disease.
• Type 2 diabetes.
• Breathing problems, such as asthma and sleep apnea.
• Joint problems such as osteoarthritis and musculoskeletal discomfort.
• Gallstones and gallbladder disease.

Two decades will make them class III obese (formerly known as morbidly obese), if not worse. The Cleveland Clinic advises

"If left untreated, class III obesity may shorten life expectancy up to 14 years. In addition to contributing to potentially serious health problems, class III obesity is associated with reduced economic and social opportunities and reduced quality of life."

As stated in the abstract, we have been burning fossil fuels at the same high rate as our over-eater for more than two decades. How can we possibly imagine that the consequences for the planet will be less severe?

Current Composition of the Atmosphere, November, 2024

Guest post by Jim

NOAA has once again released its monthly updates to CO₂, CH₄, and N₂O. See the data section for each gas. 

https://gml.noaa.gov/ccgg/

Here are the updated results. Little has changed. By 2030 the atmosphere will have such a high concentration of greenhouse gases that the effective radiative forcing will be  twice that of the pre-industrial era. 

The 2x crossing is now estimated to occur 1 April, 2030 (no joke!), give or take a month; changes in this estimate over the last year are more likely due to month-to-month fluctuations, not long term changes in trends.

Here is the combination of historic data, satellite era data, and the most recent updates from NOAA:

 

What could possibly go wrong?

 Source:https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2024/11/11/2284411/-Cartoon-Over-the-cliff